Economics 9708/22 — February/March 2019

Poland: a growing economy

Extract 1: Poland’s successful transition from a planned economy

Since 1995, Poland has grown faster than all other large economies at a similar level of development. By 2015, Poland’s national income had reached a record level. Consumption expenditure rose and exports dramatically increased, coming close to US$250 billion in 2013.

Poland’s growth has been based on skilled labour and entrepreneurship, not on natural resources. Two crucial factors were important in Poland’s development. Firstly, Poland adopted a policy of expanding the quantity and quality of education. In 2015, 50% of young people studied at university level, up from 10% in 1989. Secondly, the Polish government used funds from the European Union (EU) to develop transport links that helped to connect Poland with Western Europe.

Poland seems to have been thorough in introducing market-oriented reforms at the beginning of its transition from a planned economy in the 1990s. This helped to create a private sector boom and ensured Poland avoided a post-transition recession. It managed the privatisation process in an efficient way. Lastly, Poland benefited from a large and rapidly growing domestic market, which helped to insulate it from external shocks, such as the global financial crisis in 2007–08.

Poland’s performance in the last 25 years could be called a miracle.

Source: Marcin Piatkowski: Brookings Institution, February 2015

Extract 2: Will Poland’s economy slow down?

The Polish economy’s growth slowed significantly in 2016, mainly due to a slowdown in private investment. The outlook for 2017 was also gloomy, with concerns regarding the global economy and domestic economic policy. Private consumption and public investment were expected to continue to be strong, but a significant slowdown in economic activity was expected throughout the year.

This was because of a significant decline in investment by private companies. In the first half of 2016 companies were cutting spending on fixed capital. A survey by the Polish central bank indicated that companies were very reluctant to start new investments. Entrepreneurs were afraid of the possible consequences of changes in the government’s economic policy, for example increased indirect taxes such as general sales taxes. In addition, foreign companies were delaying major investments in Poland because of the uncertainties in the economic climate.

After a period of rising net exports of goods, by 2016 the trend was reversing mainly due to a decline in demand from the larger EU economies. The outlook for 2017 was not any better and the fall in net exports of goods was expected to be the main factor slowing down the Polish economy.

Public spending was one possible way in which Poland’s economic growth could have been boosted in 2017. The government could increase the budget deficit and take other demand-stimulating actions. An interesting suggestion from the government was to decrease the retirement age back to its 2012 level (65 years for men and 60 years for women). All of these proposals might keep GDP growth above 3% until the end of the year.

Source: Adam Czerniak, Poland Today, Issue 13, March 2017

Table 1.1: Poland’s current account of the balance of payments, 2014–2016 (million Euros)

Source: National Bank of Poland